CURRENT CRISIS DUE TO CORONAVIRUS - AIR FREIGHT CAN BENEFIT

Bad Honnef, 03 March 2020 - The coronavirus has now also reached Europe and will have a major impact on passenger traffic as well as air freight. Prof. Dr. Arne Schulke is a long-standing expert on air traffic and logistics at the IUBH International University of Applied Sciences and provides well-grounded insights and forecasts for this development. His theses are as follows:

1. The Coronavirus will significantly affect passenger traffic (PAX).

The effects are already strongly negative, as evidenced by the route cancellations of many airlines to and from Asia. The scale is already strongly reminiscent of the SARS epidemic of 2003, when at its worst passenger traffic figures fell globally by up to 35%. Airlines can therefore expect heavy losses worldwide: Depending on the course of the crisis, 2020 could be the worst year for the aviation industry since the financial crisis of 2009: IATA currently expects passenger numbers to fall by 13% in 2020 - this would probably mean another loss-making year for the industry on a global average for the first time.

2. Air freight can benefit from the current development

Due to the collapse of road and port logistics as a result of the security measures for Corona in the Asian region - especially in China - shipping traffic has been massively affected worldwide.

This has two completely opposite effects on aviation: because companies are trying to relieve blocked supply routes by ship through air freight, demand for air freight is currently rising rapidly, from which the airlines are benefiting. However, about 50% of all airfreight is not transported by cargo-only airlines but by passenger aircraft (PAX) - so every PAX flight cancelled because of the coronavirus also reduces these capacities.

Profiteers of the current crisis are cargo airlines/mixed carriers (freighters and PAX aircraft) and charter airlines, which will most likely look back on 2020 as a record year.

We would be happy to put you in touch with Prof. Dr. Schulke. About him:

Prof. Dr. Arne Schulke, Head of Department for Transport and Logistics at the IUBH

Prof. Dr. Arne Schulke has been working at the IUBH International University of Applied Sciences Bad Honnef campus since October 2015. His teaching focuses on transport and logistics with a focus on aviation topics as well as management control and leadership. He is also the head of the Transport & Logistics department.

Before taking the step into teaching, Dr Schulke worked for 11 years at time:matters, a Lufthansa Cargo company, both as CFO and later also COO. time:matters is a highly specialised provider in the field of Special Speed Logistics, offering international same-day (Sameday) transports and customised, highly sensitive transport solutions.